Renting our bums and mobile phones to GrameenPhone

Okay, so I am up to my neck with a certain annoyance, and I'd like to ask a question. I once heard or probably read somewhere that "any space is advertising space". Okay good. So my bum is a space, and TATA Nano can put a label there, and create exactly the same brand promise that their product exhibits.

Quoting Wikipedia, "Advertising is a form of communication intended to persuade an audience (viewers, readers or listeners) to take some action." Other websites, dictionaries etc, cite the similar definition. Advertising executives may have more creative definitions, but they all will circle around the above. Going back to the space issue, my bum is a space, and so is my mobile phone. I understand that. I also understand that I own both of them. One was a birth right, the other I paid for. But, nonetheless, they are BOTH mine.

Now if TATA Nano were to place a sticker on my bum as advertisement, I would politely say no. Ofcourse, if I were a retard, I would charge them a rent. Its still a legal and a better deal than giving free advertisement space. The same policy works for all space owners (billboards, rooftops, office windows, shop windows, toilet seats...). A rent must be paid. But I have control over my bum and can say no. But what about my mobile phone? I own it, I paid for it, I keep it safe, and I take care of it. It is space, but it is mine. So when Grameenphone sends me a barrel of text messages (even at 5am) on my mobile phone, encouraging me to download wallpaper, ringtones, porn, lottery tickets, espn sports updates, real estate updates, and in summary, avail products of other companies, I consider them as advertising on my space.


If they are using my space to advertise, Where's My Rent??

--Tauseef Anwar

Pees of doing business in Bangladesh

McCarthy must have become a household name for students of business management. The management guru who looked to marketing management through the lenses of 4Ps (Product, Place, Price, Promotion) has given us enough insight to formulate our marketing strategies for our businesses. Lately more Ps have been added to this alphabet soup for management as the triple bottom line (abbreviated as "TBL" or "3BL", and also known as "people, planet, profit" or "the three pillars") which captures an expanded spectrum of values and criteria for measuring organizational (and societal) success: economic, ecological and social. I wonder if the time has arrived to consider more Ps when it comes to doing business in Bangladesh or not. I voiced these Ps, tailormade for Bangladesh, to Farooq Sobhan Sir, President of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI) during his recent visit to London to encourage non-resident Bangladeshis to invest in Bangladesh. I hoped that Farooq Sobhan Sir would take these into account before he also becomes Sir Farooq Sobhan or something like that thanks to Knight Ridership by Her Majesty the Queen. Essentially the Ps to take into account for doing business in Bangladesh are Politics, Power, Population and Pollution over which we as individual citizens or consumers, have little control. Interestingly you will notice that the related terminologies also somehow start with a P to indicate the Present scenario.

Politics:

So doing business in Bangladesh certainly needs to take into account the much celebrated and much condemned issue of Politics. Ruling and opposition parties and the vested interest of politicians in various business sectors play a crucial role in determining the success of your business. There is perhaps no harm in treating the Bangladeshi politicians as a special type of your business customers, who are ever consuming, the more they consume, the more they want to consume. They love speed money as incentives and hold tremendous power to shut down your businesses showing or not showing silly causes anytime they want.

Try having some current ruling members of parliament or local political leaders in your management board to sail through the tenure as its very unlikely that they will reappear in power next time round, so plan your business cycles on a 5 year basis and prepare to rename your busines if required every 5 years to keep ruling politicians happy.

Power cuts:

As the Bangladeshi politicians burp on having accummulated a lot of power to make sure that their generations are well off for the next century studying or living in the West, power cuts- disruption in the supply of regular electricity, gas and water have turned out to be a veritable nightmare for businesses and general population alike in Bangladesh. Even the so called elite and upper class of Bangladesh (especially living in the golden triangle of Dhaka - Gulshan, Baridhara, Banani) are fuming because of the unprecedented power crisis in Bangladesh and their lack of power in turning on their air conditioners, IPS or generators. Let's not talk about the Poor as its a mundane topic and populace which everyone talks about to appear genuinely concerned. The businesses have been surely hit hard and are exasperating how to get out of this power starvation. This is not only adding to the operational costs of doing business but also contributing to falling productivity of workers who are faced with yet another challenge in another day of business life in Bangladesh.

If there is enough electricity available, try thinking of ways how your business can save power. Don't just stop there, announce it and inform your consumers that you are being an active corporate citizen by 'helping in every way possible' to preserve the energy and work 'hand in hand with the government' to make sure that 'optimum use of energy' is taking place during this crisis moment. The sentences in quote are certainly mere eye-washes which looks good on your corporate CV, given the current situation, so use them carefully. Remember its a real crisis out there which is not funny anymore.

Pollution:

The more you associate yourself with environment friendly business projects, the more you can talk about it. Climate change is a hot and spicy curry item served in Western meetings of delegates and heads of states. Measuring your 'carbon footprint' in the context of Bangladesh would certainly make your business look informed and concerned about the cause. So along with distributing branded blankets to urban poor in rail stations, focus more on planting trees, recycling, biogas or anything that is related with reducing pollution and has a close link with your core competence. Practice it and promote it.

Population:

This is a tricky one. Its very unlikely that Bangladeshi companies can do much in the matter of controlling a teeming population in Bangladesh. There are too many people everywhere and atleast one person available to do any of your work, starting from driving your car, washing your clothes, cleaning your house, watering your garden, cooking your food to massaging your legs.

Businesses need to take into account training this huge pool of labour. Its easy to ask for experience in job adverts but if there is not enough scope to get jobs in the first place, experience would remain a unicorn fantasy. So businesses can think of opening the door for voluntary job placements, even unpaid or minimally paid for semi-skilled population. Prioritising employees with only 2 children or those who belong to a 2 sibling family are also future foods for thought for Bangladeshi employers (Go China go!). Since businesses can't control what happens in bedrooms, atleast they can control things in the interview boardrooms with respect to encouraging to keep population in check.

So please take into account these extra 4 Ps of doing business in Bangladesh. These have become genuine Problems and are affecting ordinary Public. The P category policitians are Painfully Procrastinating the Prosperity of Bangladesh and only Patriotism will not be Powerful enough to undergo this man-made crisis. There is no alternative to Planning, Practicing and thus reaching to some sort of a Peaceful situation for doing business in Bangladesh. I guess I have mentioned enough Ps in this Para to make a nice diagram out of it incorporating the external environment, goals, stakeholders etc. Can you think of any other Peeful terms or activities which will Progress these issues in the context of Bangladeshi businesses? If yes, then please release your Pees without further ado.

Business blogging in Bangladesh - three years on

As this blog enters three years into existence with a view to promote the use of business blogging by Bangladeshi companies, I made a few quick phone surveys to a few contacts working in various industries there to find out how they are perceiving business blogging to start the conversation with Bangladeshi consumers. Following is a summary of the present state of unofficial views from a few Bangladeshi executives.

Lack of knowledge

Many Bangladeshi companies, infact most of them, seem to be unaware about the use of business blogging as a marketing tool or social media as a matter of fact, to engage with their customers. The general impression is that since the companies have websites up and running so that should suffice as far as online brand management is concerned. Moreover, the companies are confident that the existing business functions such as customer services, market research, media etc. are good enough to 'engage' customers through various surveys, ATL and BTL activities. Moreover, since there are dedicated personnel to liaise with the press and media, they are not interested to anything which is untried and uncommon in Bangladeshi business landscape.

Difference between business journalism and business blogging

Those who are aware of corporate or business blogging are still not sure whether business journalism and business blogging are the same thing and who exactly does what. They expressed satisfaction that they are getting required hotspots in TV, radio and print media to convey their brand communications to their existing and potential clients, moreover business journalists are already 'doing a good job' by regularly publishing updates and news on various aspects of their businesses, so there is no need to confuse the situation by experimenting with business blogging.

Issues of transparency and lack of rules

The 3rd category of Bangladeshi businesses have adequate knowledge of various game-changing technologies such as blogs and social media but they are unsure about protocols, regulations in their companies about how much of business information can they divulge in public space. Most are fearful of backlashes from within the company. For example, an engineer from Robi voiced his embarassment with the new brand name, is aware of the recent conversations in online space but not sure whether or not someone from Robi should engage in the conversation in the same social networks with people or not. Moreover, according to him, the management is simply not interested to pay attention to unofficial forms of communications customers try to have with the companies. Its not a priority.

Lack of defined roles and resources

Since brands attempt to share control with customers in the social media space, Bangladeshi companies can't fully stop customers from setting up fan pages and groups for the brand, either to sing praise or do brand bashing. Groups in Facebook for Aktel (Robi), BRAC Bank, GrameenPhone etc. exist but what is not clear is whether these are official representations of the brands or not. It could be the artworks of a loyal employee who thought to make a mark on behalf of his/her employer in the social media space by setting up pages for free and attempting to start conversations with consumers. But unless there are no official roles assigned, its difficult to ascertain who the official spokesperson is. Most of the time, brands discover accidental spokespersons in social media who prove to be efficient mouthpieces for the company, Bangladeshi companies are yet to wake up to this reality. So the companies would prefer to keep blogging and social media 'to a personal level and for fun only'.

A formal media survey by market research companies would be useful to provide more concrete views on this topic. Feel free to share your views and the views of your businesses on this.

Aktel becomes Robi, how rebranding gets robbed by Robiuls

No wonder naming a new born is one of the most beatiful activities undertaken by proud parents. In some cases, this graceful responsbility is handed over to grand-parents or next to kins who care about the family and ofcourse the new born. Techno savvy new parents also take help from Google to find out most uncommon and 'never-used-before' Arabic or Bangla names for their offsprings. You must have come across a lot of new mom's in your Facebook friend list who have asked for recommendations for baby names, instantly responded by enthusiast friends with an array of names to choose from. Surely if Bangladeshi mom's on Facebook can practice crowdsourcing then I wonder what held back Aktel, the Bangladeshi telecom operator, from not involving its friends, enemies, frenemies, users and non-users alike to save its face from renaming itself to 'Robi'.


I am not sure if Facebook has the technology to search for the most prominent keywords in status updates of people at a given point of time, but if they had it like Twitter search, it would have been revealed that a great deal of Bangladeshi users of mobile services are all abuzz about the recent renaming exercise executed by the 3rd largest telecom operator in Bangladesh. Some of the witty reactions are as following as found from status updates and the Corporate Blog's Facebook page.

Tausif Choudhury
i m disgusted wid the name :s thanks god i m not a subscriber of ROBI

Syed Almas Kabir
If it is Robi, what phone shall we use on Shome, Mangal, Budh, Brihashpati, Shukra & Shani?? ...And if they spell the name as ROBI instead of RAVI (correct transliteration), doesn't it seem like they're trying to 'rob' the consumers?!

Shahed Mustafa Mujahid
Can we now call the people working there as ROBIul? (this is my favorite!)

Soumya Bardhan - Rahul
its a sad name! and their outdoor publicity looks so cheap!

Mushroof Ahmed
Forget the name..this is one of the worst executed relaunches ever..the atl, btl colors, execution everything..

Arif Chowdhury
Next year it will be renamed as 'shom'

Abu Jafar Sadiq
Can the company recover this blow on itself? A stupid move.

Njmul Haider Mukul
branding name jara select korcjey tader uchit,job cherey deoa. Oh jogonnno


It seems it would help Robi to immediately undertake a post-mortem of their brand value after this akika which seems to be generating mixed, if not negative, reactions. I called up a Robiul friend of mine, who works in Robi actually, to ask him about his reactions. He made sure that his name doesn't show anywhere on this blog and expressed his utter disappointment and embarassment to have been rebranded like this. We ran through a few assumptions, albeit jokingly.


1. Although its common knowledge is that Asiatic was involved in this grand Aktel akika, its possible that the Goverment's representative from the Ministry of Renaming was involved in the task force. This is the person who is charged with renaming major establishments around Bangladesh with a political motive. Its possible that he tried his F2 (keyboard shortcut for renaming) skills in the business sector too.


2. It is possible that the new DoCoMo and Axiata management became so obsessed with local heritage that they decided to go for brand names straight from Bangla Academy dictionaries, rather than considering some local acceptance and norms in terms of linguistic preferences. No wonder Michael Kuehner has some excessive doses of Rabindranath to keep justifying the name with that of the poet's name and its proximity with the mass people of Bangladesh. Surely Rabindranath is close to our hearts, but his name as the brand name of a telecom operator? Spend some more time around Bangladesh Mikey, you will realise what you are smoking.


3. It might be that a talented baby elephant works in the agency hired by Robi, who can paint as well from time to time. So the baby elephant got paid to come up with his best efforts for this renaming of Aktel.


We also discussed how this wave of negativity could have been mitigated to some extent if Aktel would have decided to experiment in certain cases. Assuming that we refrain from criticising the very name, but focusing on the process to arrive there. Lets look at some scenarios.

1. Internal Staff Survey:

According to Robiuls, staff was never consulted or involved in any way in this process. I wonder if an internal competition or consultation could have taken place or not,to ask for suggestions. Certainly Asiatic made sure that this was not required, otherwise why they are there for?

2. Involving Aktel customers:

Say Aktel sends an SMS to its existing users asking them to send naming suggestions to a certain shortcode for free. The lucky user whose suggestion would be accepted would win some trip or something. Or even users whose suggestions would reach the top 10 shortlisted names, would receive some sort of act of 'free love' from the mobile operator. Did that happen?

3. Involving ordinary consumers:

Then there is the traditional way of print and electronic media where Aktel could have tried to create some sort of a collaborative wave of competitions, suggestions by mobile users of all operators, ordinary consumers in this major rebranding effort in its history. What did it do instead? It relied on the elephant who paints and picks up names for brands from Bangla Academy dictionaries. Although it claims that 'Robi will remain beside the people of Bangladesh as they want. Robi will incorporate Bangla in all facet of its work. In Bangladesh, telecommunication sector witnessed massive development during the last decade, mainly due to the penetration of mobile telephony. However, there remain enormous opportunities for further growth as the economic indices grow correspondingly. As the main thrust of development will be rural-based, identification of the name with a Bengali word is expected to add significant value.' What this statement misses is the fact that picking up any Bengali name, as suggested by the elephant, will not reach the rural target audience until they know what that means, if they use it or not, even if its a Bangla word. No wonder their website is still all in English with the new brand name as the only Bangla script around. So much so for rural users of mobile in Bangladesh.

4. What about social media?

Another proof of Aktel's opting for archaic means of consumer involvement is the total disregard for social media. Certainly no other big Bangladeshi brands are considering social media in a large scale, nevertheless, Aktel could have taken this opportunity to set some sort of benchmark in crowdsourcing suggestions and getting users engaged in the rebranding exercise, which if rightly planned, could have taken some viral effect. Its interesting to note that all the comments, positive or negative, about Aktel or Robi is flying around nowhere else more but in social media and through the network effect, bad news is spreading faster for Aktel through the social network. See Aktel unofficial Facebook page for more brouhaha regarding Robi.


There is no denying of the fact that eye-brows might have been raised when Apple decided to call itself 'Apple' and started producing operating systems and computers. But it is to be noted that that is how they started, there has never been any rebranding involved (other than the logo) and consumers identify themselves with the company's products (iPods, Macbooks etc.) and personality more than they do with the brand name itself. Infact the product superiority and innovation has made 'Apple' sound like a renegade and trend-setter in its industry. Same with the case of Grameenphone's Djuice. Although it doesn't make much sense why a telecom product sounds like a fruit juice, they could affort that exercise on a child product brand targeting a certain market segment. Can we claim the same for Aktel or Robi? The lagging third player in the competitive mobile industry in Bangladesh is in the third position never because of its name. So its very unlikely that by putting up a different make up on a Sunday and renaming itself as Robi would be of much help.


I guess the mass consumers and citizens of Bangladesh are wary of renaming exercises. Unless there is no actual value added, or utility created in terms of consumption and the customer service that follows, all this would be futile. By the way, hats off to Asiatic and the baby elephant to pull it off Aktel's pocket real hard. Thank god its Monday today.

Mobile based donations for Bangladeshi NGOs

When the North Kashmir earthquake stuck Pakistan in October 2005, the owners of the off-licence shop on top of which I used to live in North London were quick to setup a donation bucket at the check out counter in aid of their fellow countrymen and women who fell victim to the devastating natural calamity. The red buckets were wrapped with photos of distressed children and women sitting on debris and wreckage under an open sky with screaming calls to action in English and Urdu asking Londoners to donate for the tragedy. Certainly a generous move, the least people abroad could do when their roots back home are shaken and stirred by powers over which humans have no control. Keeping aside my political and historical bias, I also thought to participate in this humanitarian initiative by donating some hard earned sterlings, much to the gratitude and appreciation of my bhaijaans. Their weeklong charity event finally ended with enough cash collected from sympathised Londoners, to cook heavenly aromatic Biriyani, chicken curries and other gastronomic delights fuelled with sufficient supply of Jack Daniels, Smirnoffs and free flowing Stella Artois. Not to mention the night long merry-making with Bollywood music that ensued as they celebrated the inflow of cash, thanks to the earthquake miles away. A night of rejoicement for some, and reflections, repentance for myself, staying up all night and wondering why the hell did I waste my money by donating it to those untrustworthy exploiters.


Natural calamities are part of life in Bangladesh. We the habitants have become so resilient and used to floods, cyclones, droughts that we would lend deaf ears to threats of climate change or a massive earthquake until they actually flatten us. Our capacity and patience to deal with natural hardships also contribute to the inertia we display regarding political stalemates or even traffic jams...we are happy to express disgust and waste time, hoping that somebody else will do something about it. But when it comes to the discussion on poverty alleviation, crisis response and the eventual fundraising and donation - it has been proved time and again that there are a lot many amongst us, both within and outside Bangladesh, to help with their small contributions which become immensely powerful when summed up. Are we thinking anything in line of mobile based donations in this case? I am sure you must have come across calls for mobile donations by sending SMS to a certain shortcode in campaigns run by leading national dailies like Prothom Alo or by mobile operators themselves, like Banglalink or Aktel (stands besides Soma). I wonder how the development agencies are thinking to adopt this method.


It is argued to be a misconception that ordinary people in Bangladesh cannot afford to donate, as its a very poor country. Although the majority of the population may be under poverty line, the rich are either getting richer, the middle-class graduating to richer class or may be the actual poor are getting poorer. Whatever be the case, it does not require a crystal ball to establish that a certain class in the society has increased buying power and consumption desire which is taking them to Kathmandu and Singapore for gambling, Kolkata, Delhi for shopping, Malaysia, Thailand for holidays, leaving Cox's Bazar behind as the buying prowess can afford it. So the argument is for the fact that there are enough people inside Bangladesh who would be willing to donate for noble causes if certain criteria are met.


Authenticity of the organisation

Certainly we will not want to donate through our mobiles to a dubious or less known organisation who just might disappear next week, pretty much like the charity stunt executed by my previous neighbours in North London, as mentioned in the early section of this post. So its important to establish the authority and authenticity of the NGO to convince mobile users to donate through SMS. Its even more important as we as the NGO-mushrooming country have given room for enough frauds (count 1000+) to consider poverty reduction as a profitable business venture only and nothing else. So caution is the best policy as a donor, and if you are an NGO, make sure that your brand is established first and foremost before jumping into the mobile donation bandwagon.

The cause itself
Next comes the issue of the cause, how severe it is, how quickly donation is required, how long the mobile donation is open i.e. right now, for a week, open ended, monthly etc. need to be determined. For example, following a cyclone or a flood, or earthquakes (Haiti), donations are required as quickly as possible. Red Cross SMS appeal for Haiti raised $8M in 2 days as people were interested to get involved as quickly and as easily as possible. So the time taken to donate is extremely important, the shorter the time, the better it is. Other than natural calamities, entities such as Islamic Foundation can also consider how interested people can pay their zakaat or fitra during Eids (a religious cause in this case) through SMS based donations, assuming that the organisation meets the 1st criteria discussed earlier. However, its very unlikely that people will be interested enough to be involved in fundraising campaigns that go on endlessly. It can generate suspicion of corruption unless the NGO provides transparency on the movements of the SMS donation from ordinary donors.

Donation experience

When an ordinary donor is convinced about the authenticity and sympathised with the cause, its time to design the donation experience. You must be aware of the recent fundraising exercise by Jaago Foundation 'where a group of young boys and girls, clad in bright yellow tees, were seen thronging the roads in different parts of Dhaka city, selling flowers at red signals and talking to people in the vehicles. Not only was it a shock for commuters sitting in the traffic jam watching these young people in yellow Jaago Foundation tee shirts selling flowers, it was quite a pleasant surprise for them to watch these smiling youngsters trying to make a difference in their own little way.' So in this case the donation took place from the comfort of your car stuck in the never-moving traffic jams in Dhaka. The experience could also take place during concerts. Say Ayub Bachchu or James, urging a loyal strong 10000+ music revellers present during a concert against drug addiction, to donate 1 taka for 'Mukti' (the drug rehab center) so that youngters who are prone to drug abuse are warned and cared for. Events arranged by NGOs inviting various stakeholders during conferences, workshops are also good opportunities to lock in and ask for SMS donation from within the premises and during the events. Finally the amount to donate is extremely important too. Either a donor can be asked to settle for a monthly 1 taka donation, direct debited from the mobile credit or the donation amount can be open ended. Say to 2525 could deduct 10 taka from my account for the rehabilitation of the victims of Cyclone Nargis.


Follow up

Our NGOs are keen to keep the foreign donors happy with the hope of receiving fresh funds. All the monitoring and evaluation, impact assessment tools are designed to prove to the foreign donors how their money made a difference in the poor people's lives in Bangladesh. But if you are seeking to look for new donors in the domestic market through SMS based donations, you need to figure out your transparency framework for fund raised this way. Unless ordinary donors like students, housewives, service holders are not sure about the impact of their tiny (but important) donations, its likely that they will shy away from future calls to donate for any event whatsoever.


If Grameen Phone is one of the pioneers in facilitating mobile based financial services where we can pay electric bills, buy train tickets through SMS, then we are not far away from facilitating mobile based donations for social causes. This conversation would continue in next posts focusing on mobile based remittances, mobile banking for the poor, but in the meantime have a look at what others have done around, notably M-Pesa in Kenya, Obopay in India etc.

How to Invest Like Peter Lynch - Kabir Ahmed's blog on stock investing

In a previous blog, we have discussed thoroughly the inevitable risk, so far, in the stock market that comes from a lack of knowledge. For that reason risk is contextual, that is depending on a degree of knowledge and also understanding many factors like quantitative, qualitative that are based on under-lying values of a company and psychological movements of shares. The risk needs to be measured and minimized through a learning process, implementing trading evaluation process and varieties of trading strategies. Many of us have already learned the risk minimization process and its importance, now we can begin to explore and experience. (read more)


We have also discussed how to build confidence in the process of screening a list of shares in a stock market investment. This process must be ingrained at a subconscious level to control our minds and create a habit of utilizing a defensive (conservative) approach in a stock selection. Despite many other investment methodologies available, a few people have become highly regarded and popular to global investors because their investment strategies are well-recognized on Wall Street as well as studied in academic circles. Just think about these consummate stock pickers who have run billions of dollars of funds in the last 30 or 40 years with their sophisticated stock screening process. There must be some traits which they are born with and also which they have learned so effectively that they can now trounce the market in order to gain lucrative profits on selected shares. Obviously, there are many questions to be asked. How do they perceive a company, how do they approach studying a company, and what type of investment methodology do they apply for analyzing shares? Does this make you curious at all? It makes me curious for sure. Obviously, their continuous successes are not based on pumping-dumping nor rumor, but rather a solid long-term objective, written on paper, that was followed as a blue-print. What could be more important than studying their investment styles? Old folks believe that there is no need to waste your energy to invent wheels when wheels already exist. These people created remarkable fortune with their great understanding of companies’ future prospect and experiences that can be a course of direction to other investors, in a way, to utilize their investment styles, and adopt their proven attributes and principles that will guide investors to stay on a right course to win on profit-taking.


One of the greatest successful fund managers was named Peter Lynch, who became revered and famous as a money manager worldwide, managed Fidelity’s Magellan fund which is one of world’s largest mutual funds. The remarkable achievement of his career is managing Magellan fund with a cumulative return of 2,703 percent and an average annual return of 29.2%. That small and obscure Magellan fund grew from $20 million in assets when he started managing the funds in 1977 to $14 billion at the time he retired in 1990. Many of his investment strategies and policies have been studied in academic circles around the world. Simplification to a company’s business is one of his mottos, especially understanding and explaining the investment methodology into simple logic—common sense. That was greatly compelling to ordinary people like John or Karim who are neither rich nor well-educated in financial terminology, who don’t have access to sophisticated financial resources, that are only for professional people. Despite all of the financial jargon, you can still do well in the market. He strongly believes that there are some events, news, and business prospect happening that are regularly available to anyone who may attain an investment edge by paying attention to what’s going on around us at the market place or in our society in terms of technological advancement.


For the sake of simplicity, ask yourself what you already know about a company by its products or services, whether they appeal to our society and show a sign of growing in the market place. When you carefully look at these selective products or services-ask yourself how much appealing is taking place to consumers and shaping our society to the advancement. See if these products are essential and integral to our everyday life styles or are they extension of luxuries—imagine you don’t have to depend on clothes, soft drinks, drugs, and also necessary food. All the products we use every day for the rest of our lives that can be sorted to cyclical and non-cyclical products and services. Cyclical represents those products or services that depend on the country’s economy and government’s changes, because they are such products that consumers and businesses only spend on more in an upward turn in the economy. When the market senses bad times coming in the economy, consumers will move toward non-cyclical or defensive stocks due to cyclical changes. Automobiles, vacation/airlines, tire, chemical companies and defense companies are classical example of cyclical stocks. When the economy is good, the middle class is expanding and people are working, so car sales do well. However, if there are layoffs and uncertainties or high interest rates, people may decide to hold off going on vacation or buying a car until next year. In such a cyclical period, some businesses are either falling off or moving up, this can be an early sign for investors to determine the timing to exit, by selling or enter, by buying, certain stocks. Businesses expand during good times or out of necessity. They buy new equipment and build new facilities, so equipment sales and constructions are also early sign for investors. The classic example of non-cyclical stocks is utilities. Everyone from consumers to businesses needs gas, electricity, and also some household non-durable goods such as toothpaste, medicine, necessary foods and others are classical example of non-cyclical stocks. Such common sense, with a little bit of paying attention, can separate the products and services into either cyclical or non-cyclical in order for investors to discover the prospect of certain stocks and decide whether or not they want to enter the market based on the proper timing, because timing is everything when it comes cyclical ones.


Based on the growth rate of earnings per share over the years, many other fund managers as well as Peter Lynch usually use certain methodology to classify stocks into one of these three main categories: fast growers, stalwarts, and slow growers, and also classify stocks to cyclical, turnarounds and asset plays based on other attributes. It is a comparison of PE with growth rate of earning per share per quarter, simple earnings per share, and annual sales to identify if a company is a fast grower, stalwart or slow grower.


Fast growers are companies whose annual EPS’s growth rate was either at 20% or higher in past three years; the growth rate can go much higher. However, a quick growth does not always sound good either because the company may experience trouble with its capacity and managing under a right course. So, it is important to look for at least 3 years of earning records. Some new companies are in the market place with their smaller size of business operation, but aggressive growth, due to new innovative ideas and pioneering in the industry, can achieve a growth rate of 20% or higher in earnings per share. Such a small company with a great deal of success in a small local city can multiply to different cities and different places by duplicating the same business model. Such an expansion of business model can also multiply its rate of earnings growth. Peter Lynch’s idea is to look for PEs that are either less or equal to the growth rate of earning per share then the stock is seen as a fair price. If PE stats are at half or less than the growth rate (say the growth rate is 40% while the PE is 19) that is much better bargain price. It is simply a comparison of how fast earnings growing and how fast PE changing. PEs must be lagging at least; the less it is comparing to growth of EPS, the more gets it attractive to investors. PE ratio to annual sales is when a company manages to have $1 billion ( such a company can be new, any index group but huge revenues growth) dollars of sales per year and the PE ratio is less than 40, then a stock is seen as a fair price. A stock is no longer a bargain price when the PE goes any higher than 40 even the company’s sales are higher than $1 billion (average sales in those fast growing companies listed in DSE).


Stalwarts are companies whose annual earnings per share growth rate exist between 10% and 19% and the PE stats must be half or less than the growth rate plus the yield (say, the growth rate is 45%, a yield is 5% and PE is 20) when the stock is seen as a bargain price. The sales of the company must maintain $2 billion dollars or higher in order to screen a company in a Stalwarts category. Earnings are growing moderately, however, companies in this group are matured and in a highly competitive industry and listed in blue chip categories like DSE-20 or CSE-30. Investors’ expectation from Stalwarts are dividends payments along with a little bit of stock price appreciation.

Slow grower companies are mostly large and aging, and can’t accelerate businesses easily with new business strategies, whose annual EPS growth rate is slightly higher than GNP which would be less than 10% of growth rate. Such companies are extremely stable but earnings growth or capital appreciation or dividends growth are not very noticeable because these Companies already have passed the peak point and are moving away from maturity. Especially utility companies when they have been in the business for decades and providing electricity to limited number of cities.

Turnarounds are companies facing troubles; however they have managed to pull themselves out of serious slumps through bail out money or its own strength. A perfectly healthy company which shows a long history of dividends payments, but currently the stock has created a new 52-week bottom price that can’t be disregarded if you are fishing for the bottom price.


Asset Plays is when the company’s assets exceed its market capital, such companies are commodity based or supermarkets that have been overlooked by Wall Street. Investors can justify the stock based on bargain price opportunity if a company represents a potential of hoard cash, therefore, the company’s price-book ratio might be much more favorable than what has been on the balance-sheet.


What do you get out after reading this article? It means a company can switch several times during its lifetime. Any new starting company starts with fast growing, if no barriers are placed then more companies enter to compete in a free market that pushes companies to stalwarts and then later companies go to further competition that pushes companies to slow growers. When competitors join in or new technology appears, they can become cyclical and then turnaround. If the price sinks far enough, however, they can be an asset play.

--Kabir Ahmed
www.bdstock.com

Riding a CNG for better reasons: Part 2

Incase you haven’t read the Part 1, here it is.

The first idea that comes to my mind is regarding mobile top-ups. All our mobile operators have successfully managed to increase their retailer network by collaborating with small shop owners in urban and rural Bangladesh. That way the retailers have another way of increased income through flexiloads, i-topups etc. Why not include the CNG walas in this scheme? If you are having an important conversation while on the move in a CNG and suddenly run out of credit, you can simply get it flexi-loaded from an affiliated CNG wala. That way you don’t have to disrupt your journey, look for an approved retailer and then top up your credit. This will also create commission based income for the CNG walas. However one counter argument to this idea is that, first the traffic jams in Dhaka are so notorious and choked that you can easily decide to get out of the CNG, get a flexiload and come back to your vehicle still finding it to be inching amidst the mindless traffic in the city. Female passengers might not be very inclined to give their mobile numbers to flexi-loader CNG walas due to fear of mobile abuse. Nevertheless, its just an idea worth considering.

The second idea in this line is up for charities/NGOs. Say an NGO decides to partner with a CNG owners committee which has say 500 drivers. The NGOs will be allowed to put promotional/motivational advertisements inside the CNGs urging passengers to donate by sending text to a certain shortcode. Incase someone does donate, a portion of that could be shared with the prompting CNG wala. Assuming that they themselves comprise as an important target audience for delivering of any social message related with say maternal or child health, AIDS, primary education etc. they can become advocates for not only the cause, but can play a role in motivating, urging passengers to donate for the issue. Albeit they have their financial incentives embedded in this model, but atleast it will be meant to serve better purposes. The NGO will need to take service from an intermediary mobile service provider to take care of the mobile based donation, rules regulations etc. according to BTRC rules. More on mobile donations, mobile marketing in later posts.

The third idea relates to urban retailing powered with mobile technologies and the CNG walas. Consider the following scenarios.

1.You get into a CNG asking it to take you to Banani 11. The CNG wala agrees and also checks that he is affiliated with Rosh (Sweet shop) and also to ‘Shada Kalo’ (Clother retailer) in the same area.

2.CNG wala informs you that incase you want to make a purchase from Rosh or Shada Kalo, he can offer you 5% discount provided he sends you a text with the timestamp and his unique ID, and you have to make the purchase within 30 minutes and present the SMS at the counter to staff.

3.You agree to the offer and receive the text from him. So you have his phone number, the time stamp and his ID and your countdown to purchase starts!

4.You decide to make a purchase from Rosh (buy sweets) within 30 minutes of the validity of that token and present the SMS at the counter. You can forward the same SMS to 10 of your friends and if they make purchase within that timeframe from the same retailer in the same process, they get the same discounts or same special offers.

5.Staff at Rosh checks the timestamp, the ID and the number and offers you 10% discount.

6.Staff asks you to forward the SMS to their number and that information of purchase/discount gets stored into the service providers database. Rosh shares 5% of the purchase with the service provider who in turn gives 2.5% to the CNG wala. Either this can be credited as air time or the CNG wala may be allowed to redeem the accumulated commission from the service provider who may be managing more than one interested retailers.

Why would a passenger be interested?

Discounts. There is no question of lengthy loyalty to be shown to the retailer, its all based on the fact that a passenger just happens to be in the same location as the retailer, a good enough reason to turn into a consumer and make the purchase, may be an impulse one.

Why would a CNG wala be interested?

Commission. They will have one more reason to ferry passengers to their destinations, hoping that incase the passengers make any purchase from any of the subscribed retailers in that area, his chances of earning some commissions on the passengers purchase are kept alive.

Why would a retailer be interested?

The possibility of getting more footprints in the premises, more purchases from new and old customers with a ‘location and timestamp’ catch in-built. The fact that the SMS tokens will be short-lived will be re-assuring to the retailer that quick sales take place.

Certainly this is a very naïve attempt to conceptualise the idea of location based retail marketing involving the cabbies, in case of Bangladesh, who make a major portion of the urban poor. While the west is still playing with innovative location based loyalty services through mobile such as Foursquare, we can still attempt to bank on what already exists in the country, no matter how basic and simple it is, as sending and receiving SMS and facilitating sales. I have mentioned earlier about the possibility of introducing location based services which will be extremely important and revolutionary from a retail marketing perspective in Bangladesh. Until that gets materialized, we can still ride and drive a CNG for better reasons, while Liton can continue his amorous adventures and still make a discounted purchase, all by riding his favourite public transport in Dhaka city.

The future is Purple

We recently took a phone interview with Mishu Rahman, Editor, Purple Magazine, the increasingly popular Bangladeshi monthly. Please listen to the phonecast and read the supporting transcript below. You can join the Purple group in Facebook here.

1.What is the vision of Purple Magazine? Why do you think Purple is different?

PURPLE was started with a dire need to represent Bangladesh positively to a global audience in an exciting way. Most Magazines in Bangladesh are catalogues of lifestyle shopping and those which offer good reads are presented in a boring format, or else involves stale ideas and people repeating the same things across various media platforms.
PURPLE dared to take a non-political, social research based trend tracking approach which we call tracking “the Pulse of Bangladesh” The presentation in world class, language is international magazine standards and interaction with readers happen at state of the art platforms. PURPLE gives ample space to new and fresh ideas, avoids commercialization of issues and creates excitement about Bangladeshis and Bangladesh to a global audience. The vision is to bring in international recognition of PURPLE as a platform to initiate conversation on things affecting Bangladesh and the region. Already PURPLE has been distributed at a Cambridge Leadership summit as a Pre-reading for a session on Global environment to 110 young global leaders and our Agriculture Issue last November was distributed to all international dignitaries who joined the World Food Summit in Rome as a complete perspective of work being done on Agriculture in Bangladesh. These are small steps but we are getting there with each step.

2. How do you classify yourself i.e. lifestyle magazine, leisure, entertainment?
PURPLE’s mission is to enlighten, entertain, enrich inspire and interact and initiate. It celebrates the Bangladeshi Spirit. We call ourselves a Contemporary issues magazine and we have various segments catering to business, entertainment, lifestyle, culture and politics.

3. Who is your target audience? why do you target them? how do you target them?
Our target audience is anyone in Bangladesh who feel the need to be engaged with the times – and we believe everyone needs to be, so that we our cumulative contribution to the development of our country can be that much greater. We have seen that various cover stories of PURPLE appeal to different segments of the society. For example one cover two years ago on the brash lives of urban school and college students from wealthy backgrounds got a lot of urban parents writing to us asking for more details. On the other hand our issue on Agriculture generated interest of a lot researchers and analysts from across the region. Even Hugh Brammer from London who has worked in Bangladesh for over 35 years in agricultural development emailed us a writeup as a follow-up of that issue. Another Cover story on Looking at Bangladesh 30 years from now created a phenomenal participation of University students who will be middle aged citizens of Bangladesh after 3 decades to get together in workshops and send us their dreams and aspirations. Our Initiative in raising funds for the social victims raised a lot of interest among celebrities, artists and development workers. So through various features we try to engage with different parts of society which gives PURPLE an element of freshness and excitement

4. What is your opinion on the English publishing sector in Bangladesh and how PURPLE fits in there?
The English Publishing sector suffers from a dearth of readers. However, with a rising involvement of various institutions and Corporate houses, Universities and even the government in promoting the familiarity with the language, the scenario may not be the same 5 / 6 years down the line. Today we as editors suffer from a huge crisis of good writers/ reporters in English. And thus most magazines who look to become ‘English’ language magazines get away with mediocre articles, downloaded plegiarised materials and no one is the wiser.
On the brighter side, English publications with insightful articles and engaging presentations can attract a global conversation and has a wider appeal. PURPLE intends to lead in this arena over time. It has been in Publication only since July 2007, so this has been so far experimental learning. We are ready to take on bigger challenges in 2010.

5. Do you make use of internet, mobile phones, social media to promote, inform, communicate and mobilize your readers? How?
What are we today without social media? PURPLE’s facebook group gets a lot of our message across. The online version is a large platform for non-resident Bangladeshis to experience PURPLE. We are aware that as more Bangladeshis go online and use internet enabled phones, online and mobile versions will become more popular. However, the print version will never really go extinct. If this was to be, then when TV came in, the newspaper would have gone out of print!

With love from St. Valentine

Dear Lovesumers in Bangladesh,

Hope you are all set to celebrate the global day of love. The more you share it, the more it grows, the more I become richer. Call it globalisation, call it cultural invasion, call it simple expression of love...Bangladesh is just one of the markets where I have successfully managed to own the day and date by branding it to be mine.

Although moral polices and CCTV parents, neighbours and big brothers are a threat to the spreading of love on this day and beyond, I really don't see any problem if some money is made in the process of expressing, sharing and preaching love with your beloved ones especially today. Other than making sure that some flowers are sold today, ensuring that restaurants do good business on this date, pushing up the sales of greeting cards and related merchandize, more importantly I make sure that you don't fall short of saying 'I love you'. There was a time when I wanted you to say it to your lover only, but now I would like you to say this magic three words to your parents, siblings, friends too. That way love will go in different directions, and sales related to my stuff will go only in one direction - up. There is no denying of the fact that festival marketing is nothing new and many non-sales events are also arranged around university campuses like debates on love-before-marriage or love-after-marriage etc. I appreciate all this you do to celebrate the spirit of pure love.

May I also take this opportunity to remind you that this very month also hosts two of your own festivals about which I am very curious about. One is the first day of spring, pahela falgun as you say, and the other is the 21 February, Shaheed Dibosh, also celebrated as the International Mother Language day, supposed to be celebrated all around the world...but I have my doubts. Just wondering if you ever thought of any things special or global related to festivals or days which are truly yours. Have you ever thought if anything exists in these festivals which you can claim to be so truly unique and so viral that you can export this across your borders too? Can you brand the principles of 21 February, the day we celebrate what we speak, how we speak...our language...so that foreigners all around the world also find a good enough reason to have fun on this day? Can you make businesses in Jordan showcase and sell merchandize related to Arabic alphabets, literature, calligraphy, language on this day so that Arabs rejoice the fact that their mother-tongue is Arabic? You atleast need language to express love...I have no problem accepting that from a business sense, your 21 February holds more appeal than the day I own..14 February. Also, I am told that you are the only nation that has laid down supreme sacrifices for your language, I doubt how many outside your small borders know this fact. May be your brand ambassadors and businesses have a responsibility to uphold your heritage. I argue that there is no harm if they make some money out of the process, as long as they are doing it in the spirit of 'accessorizing Bangladeshi patriotism'.

I tell you what...don't listen to what Imam Shaheb is saying, there is nothing Christian about me anymore...I am everybody's. Last time I went to Malaysia and Indonesia during this time of the year and found out that I am everywhere there...from Kuala Lumpur to Jakarta...I could see signs of my love and colors of my spirit..red everywhere. I don't think their Muslim-ness was so weak that it would be challenged by this one day. Actually they were doing it strictly from a business sales and social festival perspective, rather than any religious one. Businesses were happy, so were the lovers of Indonesia. So you better not worry. But just imagine, your 21 February doesn't carry any background which can be solely tagged to any religion or any controversy. So may be if you put your heads together, you can make non-Bangla speakers around the world celebrate this day, exchange expressions (in writing, saying..through languages) of gratitude, love, thanks etc. So go ahead, brand the day, own the day, accessorize the day. Globalization is supposed to be from your end too, but you need to target the globe for that. Love.

St. Valentine.

How to build confidence in an unconscious mind - Kabir Ahmed blogs from bdstock.com

Curiosity inevitably follows when you find something fascinating, does not it? For that reason, we begin puzzling due to lack of knowledge on a subject and then we start wondering, questioning, researching information that directs us to learning; such a practice in a real world and thrive in learning continuously lead us only to the level of understanding of the materials and extensive learning. (read more >>)

Some points later, through continuous learning and practicing the necessary steps we become a master of our own minds in making many good decisions from our personal life to business, and also our stock market investment decisions.


Learning is conceptual understanding in the process of grasping and comprehending something is an essential keeping oneself on the edge and making also sound decision; they can’t be apart from each other and neither in integral part of our lives. As decision making is perceived by having enough knowledge and careful consideration most likely the outcome would be good or at least less risky. That’s why people say to put more weight on the head than heart in a business decision because pragmatic thinking may secure a better financial advantage. It is true investing in the stock market – just because stock market investment is a business. Winning a stock market in every investment requires mental fitness with solid mental habits that will only practice rules of thumb or investment principles. It is no less than exercising and running every day for physical fitness to win a marathon. The exercise is one day for one thing at a time-- learn, practice and build mental habits

A habit is a learned response that has become automatic through repetition. One good decision based on mental habits can make you to get another higher rate of good decision as you continue to do so that will grow only the rate of compounding and leave you a financial success.

The key is here learning and how spontaneously making good judgment on a stock. Let me ask you a simple question if you are an experienced driver. Aren’t you expert on making instantaneous judgments — exactly when to slow down, speed up, turn right or left for avoiding a potential accident or running into a pothole on the road.


You can probably recall times when you have hit the brakes or swerved to avoid an accident — have you been aware of the complete driving movements? Probably not, rather you have been busy listening music and talking to friends while driving, all these pre-cautious actions and decisions made entirely at the subconscious level of your mind. Such pre-programmed automatic reactions come as the result of years of experience.


Think about it for a moment and you’ll realize that driving a car on a busy traffic road is quite a complicated activity. Think of all the things you’re monitoring at the same time:
• Is that kid going to run onto the road?
• Is that car behind me too close?
• Will that car stop at the corner although no signal light is given?
• Is there enough space between me and the car in front in case he brakes hard — unexpectedly?

Have you ever thought of multi-tasking activities you are involved in driving in unconscious mind? Even an apparently simple thing like changing lanes on the freeway is what’s called a multi-body problem in physics. You have to monitor your speed, the speed of the traffic, the speed of the cars behind you and in front of you on the lane you’re in and the lane you want to move into. And you do all these at the same time, almost instantaneously. In a state of unconscious competence, you solve the multi-body problem automatically — what to watch precisely are pre-programmed and ingrained into your brain by practice.

The Four Stages of Learning

Pro-Investors act apparently effortlessly and instantaneously in a way that they don’t even pause to think, screening a stock comes from built in mental habits like driving a car in a highway, but other inexperience investors seem find risky because of lack of knowledge and lack of competency. Investor saga “Warren Buffett” can decide to buy a multi-million dollar company in 10 minutes or less, doing all the calculations in his head. He doesn’t even go back his guidelines and spend night after night to evaluate a company. What’s more, most of the decisions he’s made so quickly have proven to be the right ones.

“That’s only possible for someone who has gone through the four stages of learning:

• Unconscious incompetence: in a state of mind he doesn’t know that he doesn’t know. Little knowledge is dangerous…..
• Conscious incompetence: in a state of mind one knows that he doesn’t know. A person knows about confused with how to read balance-sheet and all the earning reports.
• Conscious competence: in state of mind knows what he knows and knows what he doesn’t know. A person has understood precisely the limitation of his knowledge and competency.
• Unconscious competence: knows that he knows in depth and has trained subconscious mind to take actions unconsciously.”
Unconscious incompetence is the state where you don’t even know that you don’t know: the state of mind so many young drivers are in when they begin to learn to drive. That’s why young drivers have many more accidents than older, they fail (or refuse) to recognize their limited knowledge, skill and experience.

People in this state are highly likely to take risks — expose themselves to danger or loss — for the simple reason they’re totally unaware that that’s what they’re doing. It is also the reason why the worst thing that can happen to a novice investor is to make a pile of money on his very first investment. His success leads him to believe that he’s found the secret of trading or investing and that he really knows what he’s doing. So he repeats whatever he did in the past — surprisingly he has lost everything.


Conscious incompetence is the first step to mastering any subject. It’s the conscious admission to yourself that you really don’t know what to do, and the full acceptance of your own ignorance.
This may result in feelings of despair or futility or hopelessness — which stops some people from investing entirely. But it’s the only way to realize that to master the subject requires a process of intensive learning.


Conscious competence is when you’re beginning to have mastery of a subject, but your actions have yet to become automatic, not complete yet. In this stage of mastery, you have to take every action at the conscious level. In this stage, your reactions are far slower than the expert’s.
This doesn’t mean you can’t do it: far from it. You could make the same investment decision as Warren Buffett. But what took Buffett 10 minutes to decide might take you 10 days...or even 10 months: you have to think through every single aspect of the investment.


An amazing number of investors believe they can skip this stage of learning entirely. One way they attempt to do it is to duplicate theory after reading about Dow Theory, or Technical analysis book or whatever, and follow the steps outlined, or who adopt someone else’s trading strategy, sooner or later find that it doesn’t work for them. There’s no short-cut to unconscious competence. As your knowledge expands, as your skills develop, as you gain experience by applying them over and over again, they become more and more automated and move from your conscious mind into your subconscious.

Unconscious competence is the state of a Master, who just does it — and may not even know how, specifically, he does it. When he acts from unconscious competence, the Master appears to make decisions effortlessly, and acts in ways that might scare you or me to death. He knows what he is doing. Similarly, there’s bound to be something you do in your life that, to an outsider, seems full of risk but to you is risk-free. That’s because you have built up experience and achieved unconscious competence in that activity over the years. You know what you’re doing — and you know what not to do. To someone who doesn’t have your knowledge and experience, what you do will seem full of risk. Many of us will find risk in sky diving, skiing, rock-climbing, scuba diving or car racing. For others, they are merely challenging games playing in almost every week.

Risk declines with experience: There is a risk in everything regardless of what you have in your mind. If you focus on how to reduce risk by following having extensive knowledge and experiences that will only leave you on hands of good investment stake. When George Soros (another saga investor in our time) shorted the pound sterling with $10 billion dollars of leverage in 1992, was he taking a risk? To us, he was. But we tend to judge the level of risk by our own parameters; or to think that risk is somehow absolute. But Soros knew what he was doing. He was confident the level of risk was completely manageable. He’d calculated that the most he could lose was about 4%. “So there was really very little risk involved.” In Warren Buffett’s own words: “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”

Narrated from a book named “the Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett and George Soros.”

-- Kabir Ahmed is a stock market specialist, runs www.bdstock.com

How to minimize risk : Kabir Ahmed from bdstock.com blogs

As you are new to investing and getting ready to invest in the stock market then keep in mind that there is a large element of risk involved unless you reduce risks and exposure with care. A significant part of the risk comes from not knowing—the necessary knowledge of stock market, and the experience in investing. A lack of knowledge and experience constitutes the greatest risk for new investors but that can be managed toward gradual diminishing with a power that comes from extensive knowledge, and understanding. The more familiar you are with stock market-how it works, factors that affect stock value, materials you need to read every day , understanding thoroughly the balance sheet, the better you can navigate and shoot close to investment goals- that will only be direction of profit maximizing. The same knowledge that enables you to grow your wealth also enables you to minimize your risk. Read more >>

Just think about for a second how a person in skydiving jumps out from an airplane over 3,000 feet high in the sky or a rock climber keeps his or her body hanging by fingers a hundred feet up a vertical cliff and pushing himself/herself to climb up much higher? How much risk is it for you? It must be close to risk of death. However, with enough experience, understanding of rock-climbing techniques and after a lot of training a person is able to build unconscious confidence, as a result skydiving or rock climbing is no longer risk rather fun games. Risk is related to knowledge, understanding, experience, and competence. Risk is contextual that is depending on the context.


Risk is an inherent part of investing in stocks. People always dream of making a fortune in the stock market, and many do it, but many other newbie investors have lost everything very quickly because of failing to minimize the risk involved with investing in the stock market.

Seeking Knowledge

Gaining knowledge is absolutely necessary before you do anything with your investment money, the foremost you can do is writing down lists of things on paper that such amount of time you are going to put aside for reading stock market articles, understanding the market system, browsing stock portfolio, reading market news. Then you create a few dummy portfolios just to watch and evaluate the shares you hold currently in the portfolios and also analyze them as a stock market analyst what has caused stocks gains or losses and these are results of what kind of investment strategy you have applied.


Pick a few stocks that you think will increase in value and then track them for a while probably 3 or 4 weeks and see how they perform; you can create multiple portfolios by using http://www.bdstock.com/portfolio.php page. Begin to understand how the price of stocks go up and down, and watch what happen to the stocks you chose when various events take place. As you find out more and more about stock investing, you get better and better at picking individual stocks. In this process- you haven’t risked or lost yet since you have not bought or sold stocks in real stock market rather holding them in your dummy portfolios. You can design a stock portfolio and track its performance with thousands of other investors to see how well you have been doing. If you can achieve overall 15% or higher percentage of profit gains in a three-four months of period which will be a remarkable achievement for a new investor due to current market trend which is up-beat and also DGEN/DSE indexes stand over 40% higher comparing to a 150 days moving average that is a sign of bullish market (in case, you want to verify it http://www.bdstock.com/marketcapitalization.php) that means market environment is on your favor and easier to make money than losing.


This entire topic here is to build a stock trading plan, strategies, trading objective, and involve in stock market education, and have enough experiences in order to reduce the risk and play as a master investor like George Soros/Warren Buffet. Have you seen an architect create a blue print who knows for sure a building will stand up for years, substance in the material and the infrastructure are so intact that will have strength to bear whole building? The quality of design and construction are measured perfectly while it is still on the paper as a blue print.
The bottom line is that you want to make sure that you are in control of your mind; you have learned enough, and gained experiences. Now, you are confident and able to analyze companies’ profiles, and follow the investment guidelines that you have created and experienced and detach your emotions from trading. If you are emotional with your losses or with your gains you are in for a roller coaster of a ride. You are either falling in love with stocks; hope shares will go up in the future without following investment guidelines.

Getting familiar with investing style

Investing usually falls into one of two strategies: defensive and offensive. A defensive investing strategy looks to avoid stock market risk as it uses long term investing to post steady, consistent gains. Over time, defensive investing is the most likely to achieve its long-term objectives because it strict with investment guidelines to seek to virtually eliminate the risk in the stock market.


The second strategy is quite different. It is offensive in nature, looking to capitalize on opportunities in bull market. Offensive investing ignores or minimizes stock market risk as it looks to make rapid gains, mostly follow day to day market trend without following guidelines.
Defensive investing doesn’t mean you won’t make money; defensive investing means you take calculated risk and typically lower gains to consistently make money. We all know who won the race in a “Turtle & Rabbit Story” and completed the race at the end although rabbit is a faster runner; it was obviously the result of turtle’s stunning faith, perseverance which kept her running same pace in the race. The consistent gaining even a little bit of accumulation in a long period of time can bring greater success and suppress the faster gaining in a short period of time.
There are many investing styles. Some people invest aggressively, preferring riskier stock that might give a larger and quicker reward which is very close to offensive investment, while others invest more conservatively. Conservative Investing focuses on preserving the investment and allowing it to grow naturally over time.


Conservative approach is the style for people who seek to minimize the risks using considerable fundamental analysis, usually investors prefer to invest in safe, well established companies’ stocks those companies have been around in the market for more than a few years with reputation, have shown increasing sales, increasing earnings per share over the years, have shown strong management skills by making new business deals, maintaining regular AGM and allocating constant dividend payments to investors. Conservative approach is a role that investors seed for long-term objective, are not playing the market for a quick buck rather traders focus on minimizing the risk by analyzing if these companies are seen as leader, playing a solid role as brand name and obviously these type of companies are not going anywhere because they are pillar of Bangladesh’s economy.


You may be thinking why I would spend so much time and effort understanding the process of analyzing shares and reducing risks when I can buy stocks with the help of other people suggestions, recommendations? No one would doubt about it, and neither do I, however, you will find different suggestions from different people and most of times they have no clue and are not expert on analyzing shares because they are new as much as you are in the stock market. Even you may make good money in a short period of time using those rumors, individual stock recommendation. But greater experiences come from failing a few times, but still striving to learn every aspect of investment methodology because a person knows I rather get experienced and expert on how to catch fish forever rest of my life rather given me big fish a few times.

----
Kabir Ahmed is a stock investment specialist at www.bdstock.com

Riding a CNG for better reasons: Part 1

I am convinced that my Chhoto Chachchu, may be unknowingly, was one of the leading pioneers in promoting and practicing the concepts of ‘Liton er flat’ in Bangladesh since late eighties. When I look back now some 22 years ago, I realise that the frequenting of the Dhaka hotties (omuk apu, tomuk aunty) and the warm welcome by Chachchu in his mysterious, dodgy private room in the house was nothing but the budding concept of ‘Liton er flat’, the fact and phenomenon later exposed in the hit Bangla film ‘Bachelor’. I am even surprised and happy to discover that even a fan page on Facebook exists for ‘Liton er flat’ where they ask ‘what kind of services you wish for in Lit’s flat?’ (lol). We can discuss however about the concept, emergence, need, use, risks etc. of this innovative, productive (!) ‘flat’ in a later post.

What makes me look back to this is also the fact that Chachchu used to ask (or rather command) me from the realm of his own 'Liton er flat' sometimes to get him a ‘baby’ with ‘curtains’. Now don’t be mistaken by this ‘baby’, this ‘baby’ was not any of Chachchu’s ‘babies’ i.e. hot/spicy Dhaka drop-deads. Before the arrival of environment friendly green colored CNG auto-rickshaws, we used to call the three-wheelers ‘baby taxis’ or simply ‘baby’. So Chachchu used to yell for a ‘baby’ when his ‘baby’ needed to be dropped off ‘Shayer jao taratari ekta baby nie asho…porda wala anba!!’.


So that was my first orientation to the innovative usage of baby taxis in Dhaka, that other than carrying passengers around, they can be ideal places for last minute intimacy on the move between lovers of Dhaka...Liton er CNG??, as long as there are curtains and covers ofcourse. Although I remained intrigued for long time wondering how come Chachchu’s ravishing hot-heeled guests are so ‘parda-nasheen’ that they preferred ‘parda’ in baby-taxis too. Eventually I realised that this ‘parda’ was meant for other purposes which Chachchu knew and practiced better. So he kept on doing what he enjoyed doing best and I grew up to test it on my own too. I realised however that those were risky ventures if the ‘baby-wala’ happened to be a moral police and/or the time and fate was just perfect for getting mugged too. So after knowing three-wheelers as the passenger carrier and ‘vehicle of love’, I also realised that these can be used to be mugged or to mug unsuspecting innocent passengers too. Time went by, baby-taxis got replaced with CNG auto-rickshaws and we replaced ‘baby’ darling with an acronym…‘CNG’. And as Dhaka city got busier, traffic jams increased and kept on proving how horrible the urban planning in the city is and how much time, productivity, mood we keep wasting stuck inside environment friendly CNG auto-rickshaws. Sometimes I used to doze off in such situations, sometimes throw glances left and right to spot any potential Dhaka Eves in the air conditioned car stuck side by side, sometimes used to curse my fate and the system that how severely its choking people’s productivity, mood, time, etc. However if every (black) cloud has silver lining, was wondering if there is anything worthwhile doing while travelling in CNGs in Dhaka? Anything we could think of in terms of urban advertising on the go? Anything revenue generating involving the CNG owners or the drivers? (to be continued)

Status Renting, Status Bites and a range of status categories

Many status conscious Dhakaiyas think that if you manage to reside in the Bermuda triangle of Dhaka city i.e. Gulshan-Banani-Baridhara, you possess a 'higher' status than the rest who live outside, or even on the periphery. However Facebook, the most popular social networking site in Bangladesh too, is poised to make this status vanity blurred, as apparently, everybody and anybody has a ‘status’, as long they are registered with Facebook, or with Twitter as a matter of fact. This certainly implies that these status-savvy digital netizens of Bangladesh have acquired the power of being micro-publishers for free, to start influencing their smaller sphere of acquaintances, through their frequent updates about own situation, feelings, news, etc. From my observation, I could categorize the status-mongers in Facebook according to the following categories. See if you want to add some more and think how each of these could be mobilized to spread the word-of-mouth regarding you, your business, brand. (read more)


1. Stato-holics
This group of people are status addicts, they prefer to update their status as frequently as possible. Most interestingly, even if they are ‘busy’, they somehow manage to get the time out of their busy schedule to update their status as ‘Abdul is busy’ or ‘Abdul is buzzzeeeee’ etc. making others wonder whether that person is busy with work or busy Facebooking!

Tip:
This category of users may be good brand mouth-pieces for your product/service. Riding on their urge to frequent status updates, they need to be equipped with enough information and right incentives to help spread the word-of-mouse for your brand.

2. Status-stalkers
You might be having 500+ friends in your friend list but in reality you might be interacting actually with not more than 50 through personal messages, wall posts and seeing each other’s status updates. Then what happened to the rest of your colourful and long friend list? Have they suddenly turned their face off Facebook? I reckon not. This category of people prefer not to update their own status but prefer to have sneak peaks on what others are doing. Partially it could be because they don’t want their ‘friends’ to know what their own secrets plans are for job, holidays etc. lest their friends exploit this information and race ahead. So they prefer to keep a check on everybody else’s status regularly and remain themselves in a hidden mode. That’s what friends are for huh? In many case’s some stalk a handful of people genuinely to acquire more knowledge, contacts etc. They are Facebook introverts.

Tip:
Good type for market research may be, who keep a check on what other people are upto, or may be saying about your brand, business or even you…and then reports back to you.

3. Stat-vertizers
My favourite type. Those who can happily rent out their status space as a micro-bill board to advertise about your business, either for free or for fee for a certain duration of time may be. I have been investigating with this lately and am keen to get in touch with Facebook to figure out if the idea of ‘Status Renting’ could be made a reality. So if I could convince say 10 of my target Facebook friends to update their status about my custom-made-status ready information on my business/product, then it would be made visible to their own friends, with whom I might not be connected. The audience of your audience is my audience that I am trying to reach here through status messages. Its short, crispy, share-able and more importantly you would be more influenced about anything if you read it in your friends’ status updates rather than hearing it from any unsocilited ad campaign, or from me. In exchange, if its possible to track the clicks from each ‘rented status space’, it would be used to may be pay the interested stat-vertizers for their favour.

Tip:
--Friends and family might be bullied for a while to behave like stat-vertizers for a while but not for long, as there are no binding agreements. But if contextual status renting becomes a reality, it would be interesting to see how this works for businesses in a social media environment.

--Don’t let money ruin friendship.

4. Stat-wasters or Stat-blankers
This type of users are not always sure why they should use their status updates for. So sometimes they publish statuses such as ‘Abdul is …’. I really never understand the meaning of this ‘…’. To me, it’s a complete waste of space. Rather stay quiet and stalk other people than saying three dots. Also, some ignore the basic principle of brevity in status messages and opt for writing long epics in their status messages which certainly gets ignored for a skim-through status surfer.

Tip:
Wish them happiness and wish them well.

5. True socialite
They are bit of a mixed bag. They actually share nearly each of their conceivable feeling/emotion i.e. ‘Abdul is happy, sad, sick, tired, sleeping, eating, walking, thinking etc.’. They talk about food, movies, politics, life, love, pretty much everything being social requires and enjoys status messages just because they themselves are genuinely like that. They also send each other virtual gifts, play games etc.

Tip:
If a true socialite could be converted to a part time stat-vertizer, then it would be bthe est combination for your business/brand word spread. As people tend to rely more on the candid opinion of a True socialite than on the dry and monotonous updates from a stat-vertizer.

Other than ‘status-renting’ I am also researching with a concept I coined as ‘status-bites’. Inspired by what soundbites do, I think status-bites are the next best thing to educate your audience on your business/product on a slow and scheduled status release format. I am applying this specifically for reports that other teams produce for public consumption at my present workplace. It is argued that in times of information economy, attention is the currency, which no one wants to spend too much. So not many people have the time or interest or the access to go through a full report of 30-40 pages. But they would not mind to have a surface level idea, gist of the actual content in small chewable chunks, right through their status feeds so that they can be informed about the key aspects of the issue at hand through the screens of their smart phones or desktop screen. Think about it, is there anything about your business/brand, which can be released through status messages in a planned way over a period of time? May be a week or so?

Lastly, something I call ‘status-serials’. Can you tell a story about your brand/business in 10 status messages in a serial fashion? So that I have the urge to see what your next update is? Can it keep me interested in your sticky status for a week or so? However, none of these terms are in Google yet.

That it, time to update my status about this post now.